US President George W. Bush, together with his wife Laura Bush, left Washington on November 14 for a visit to four Asian countries. The date for visiting China is set on 19-21. This would be the third China visit of Bush since taking office, and he is also the US president who visits China most frequently.

The upcoming visit has drawn much attention of the international community, and the number of reporters rushed from the United States to Beijing alone exceeded 150.Some media believe that the two countries hope to push their relations to a new high through such an event.

Tight schedule

On the same day, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley also briefed journalists in Washington on Bush's schedule in Asia. He said that Bush would depart on November 14, visit Japan on 15 and 16, arrive in the ROK on 17 and arrive in Beijing on the evening of 19. A formal welcoming ceremony will be held by the Chinese side the next morning, and after that Bush will sit down with Chinese President Hu Jintao. After that the two leaders will hold a joint press conference, then Bush will meet with Premier Wen Jiabao, then a working lunch. President Hu will hold an evening banquet for the US delegation. On the morning of November 21, Bush will go to the US Embassy in China to visit diplomats there and then head for Mongolia.

Japan, the ROK and China, this is exactly the same order with which Bush visited East Asia in 2002. Commenting on this arrangement, international relations professor Niu Jun from Peaking University said that generally speaking, the United States puts allies first. Here we should particularly mention Japan. The Bush administration pays special attention to ensure that when developing US-China relations, Japan doesn't feel isolated. Bush thinks it is a mistake that the Clinton administration didn't attach enough importance to Japan in its Asia policy, therefore he certainly hopes to highlight Japan's role during his visit this time. This, however, precisely demonstrates Asia as a rising power on the international stage, and Japan's position in that region will no doubt slide further if Washington doesn't lend it a supporting hand. This is a point the Bush administration knows by heart.

Although officials from neither side revealed much detail of Bush's visit, world media can still dig out some possible "sidelights". Some say Bush may probably ride bicycle again in Beijing. Many believe that this is an activity for the president to display personal style, call back the past and express friendliness with the Chinese. During the 1970s, 29-year-old Bush stayed in Beijing for a while when his father was director of US liaison office in Beijing. At that time he often cycled around the city.

A China visit on behalf of US interests

Bush acknowledges that he is paying a visit to China on behalf of US interests, and will discuss a wide range of issues. He said I would talk about our needs for free and fair trade, currency and international intellectual property rights. I will reiterate our support to "One China" and the three joint communiques. That is, we don't support "Taiwan independence". We will also discuss the fight against terror and drug trafficking, as well as the Korean nuclear issue.

Bush talked repeatedly, in very concrete terms, about cooperation with China. He will discuss with China, he said, on how the two sides take lead and hammer out an agreement also acceptable to Japan and the ROK, so as to reduce the four countries' dependence on oil.

National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley believes that Bush will firstly press forward cooperation on issues of top priority, and doesn't predict any particular agreement. He also believes the visit is primarily aimed at checking the US trade deficit against China, which is about 200 billion dollars a year. Precisely on November 10, 14 senators jointly appealed to the president to insist on China and Japan change their trade policies that "shattered the livelihood of American people".

Analysts say topics this time will fall on two major prospects: major international concerns led by the Korean nuclear issue, and trade between the United States and China.

The Korean nuclear issue, which belongs to the non-proliferation sphere, is the central concern of the United States. The six-party talks have been universally acknowledged as the most proper and effective multilateral framework to this question. Washington hopes China would fully play its role in this regard.

The China-US economic and trade relations cover many topics. Bending on practical things is an American tradition, professor Niu said, and president is no exception. In terms of economy and trade, what the United States wants are tangible benefits, such as a higher RMB exchange rate, actions to protect IPR and more imports of American beef.

From these topics we can see the number of problems to be addressed between China and the United States is increasing sharply, that's why so many US ministers shuttled between the two countries this year¡ªthey belong to problems occurred between two closely related countries.

Sino-US ties "pleasantly noisy" this year

Meanwhile, a series of symposiums of different levels are held this week to strengthen communication and reduce misunderstanding. The most noticeable of them is CHINA-U.S. RELATIONS Trade, Diplomacy and Research, scheduled November 14-17, whose attendees include former US president George Bush, former secretaries of state Colin Powell and Henry Kissinger and other political, academic and business leaders. A coincidence is that during Bush's China visit his parents would also be here. Some people joked by saying that when the No.1 of the US government is in China, the No.1 of Bush family (referring to Barbara Bush) is also here.

This is actually a very image of China-US relations this year. Many people described it as "hot" but professor Niu prefers the expression "pleasantly noisy", which he believes highlights the importance and complexity of the relations behind a scene full of activity.

Viewed from governmental contacts, high-level US officials visited China with unprecedented frequency. Condoleezza Rice came twice as Secretary of State; the first ever strategic talks between the two countries were opened; US ministerial-level officials paid working visits one after another (in trade area alone came the Trade Representative, Treasury Secretary, Federal Reserve Chairman, and Secretary of Commerce). In security, the most sensitive area, both Admiral William J. Fallon, commander of the US Pacific Command and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited China.

What worth attention is that the right-wing forces in the United States tried their best this summer to play up "China threat" in security and economic areas, which was called "a new round" or "the third round" China threat theory in the international community. This reflects from another facet the US attention to China, showing both cooperation with China on many world affairs and anxiety and doubt over China's rapid development.

Bush's outlook on China is changing

A comment by the Washington Post on November 13 said that Bush arrived in the White House deeply skeptical of China, calling it a "strategic competitor," not a "strategic partner." But it disappoints conservatives who believe Bush has shown less commitment to his grand inaugural vision when it comes to China.

The newspaper quoted James R. Lilley, ambassador to Beijing under President George H.W. Bush, as saying that "Economics is the main thing now." "The two main players in China policy now are Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick, the former trade representative, and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who has challenged China's secretive military spending." "Zoellick knows economics and he's taken the lead, with Rumsfeld standing in the corner with a baseball bat."

Many analysts interpreted Zoellick's China policy address in September a positive signal. They say within the US Department of State Rice is mainly responsible for Middle East and Russia affairs, while Zoellick is in charge of Asia, particularly China affairs. It is believed his address represents the attitude of government, which contains two points. First, China is not the former Soviet Union and will not pose severe challenge to US interests; second, China is "related" with US interests and has been integrated into the US-led international system. The United States should push China to should responsibilities together with it within such a system, therefore it must cooperate with, instead of confronting with China.